Report: Sunbelt states likely to lead a slow recovery - Business First of Columbus:

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The report says that “the worst is behind us,” but each state’sx recovery will hinge on factors includingh how well it is able to assimilatee its portion of the federalstimulua package. “At the moment, the economy is still so we expect to see negativer GDP growth in the second but at a slower pace thanin (the firsr quarter),” said Nathaniel Karp, the bank’s U.S. chief economist. In GDP is expected to contractby 2.8 percent this more than the Sunbelt average of minus 1 percent and the nationalo average of minus 2 percent. A move back to positivre territory is expected for 2010 a .9 percent gain for Arizona, 1.5 for the regionn and 1.
1 percent for the nation, according to the report. however, is expected to lead the resurgence in economif activity in the secondf half ofthe year, but the high unemployment the greater propensity to save and the high degree of uncertaintt regarding the impact of the fiscal stimulus package coulfd present risks to this scenario,” Karp said. The report points to the Sunbelt’x unemployment rate hovering a percengt under national figures and notezs that it fell slightlyin Colorado, Florida and New Mexico during April. Initial unemployment insurance claims have fallen throughouytthe region, except in Arizona, according to Employment is expected to decline 6.
4 percent in Arizona this compared to a 3.8 percent drop across the U.S. Arizona home sales have increase d for threeconsecutive quarters, a tren in states hit hardest by the real estatee crash. Prices here, however, are expected to end the year witha 6.2 percentg decline, the report says. That comparees with BBVA’s predicted drops of 6.3 percent for Sunbeltf states and 4.3 percent In 2010, the bank is looking for a 1.3 percent gain in compared with 0.1 percent in the region and 1.7 percentf nationally. The report also notes that Arizonza led the pack among the small numbee of states seeing a rise in building permiteduring April.
The study covered economic activithin Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Alabama and New the six states in which BBVA Compaszs operates.